First published in the Guardian Weekly letters at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2012/may/01/letters?newsfeed=true
& reprinted here with permission of the author.
While reading about Japan's frenzied importation of fossil fuels in order to maintain its industrial exports (Japan's costly trade-off, GW, 20 April), I was reminded of Egypt's current difficulties with its own balance of trade.
In 1960, with 28 million people, Egypt was a food exporter. By 2008, with 82 million people, it was importing 40 per cent of its total food requirements. For many years it could pay to import food because it was a net exporter of oil. In 1996, however, Egyptian oil production peaked and in 2006 it became a net importer of oil. Without oil, Egypt has little other than tourism dollars to pay for further food imports. While population continues to grow by two per cent annually, the situation is likely to get worse.
It will be interesting to see what energy mix the Japanese choose to get them through the current energy crunch as they shift away from nuclear. Too much dependence on oil, now that global conventional supplies have peaked, may not be wise. On the other hand, a move to renewables as the Germans have done may be the best economic course, and certainly the most environmentally desirable one.
Global banking giant HSBC has noted that the cost of key renewable energy technologies is falling more rapidly than thought. Wind is already competitive with fossil fuels in many energy markets. HSBC forecasts, as have the Chinese, US and Indian governments in recent months, that solar is likely to achieve grid parity with conventional fuels in the second half of this decade.
Some energy analysts say that Japan sits on about 20,000 MW of geothermal energy, though not all of this could be developed. Nevertheless, it would go a long way towards meeting their energy needs. And unlike Egypt, Japan's population is declining - by 0.2 per cent last year. While some bemoan the distortion to the age structure, it does mean that the population might decline to a more sustainable level, one that is in balance with its resources.
Jenny Goldie
Michelago NSW Australia
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2012/may/01/letters?newsfeed=true
& reprinted here with permission of the author.
While reading about Japan's frenzied importation of fossil fuels in order to maintain its industrial exports (Japan's costly trade-off, GW, 20 April), I was reminded of Egypt's current difficulties with its own balance of trade.
In 1960, with 28 million people, Egypt was a food exporter. By 2008, with 82 million people, it was importing 40 per cent of its total food requirements. For many years it could pay to import food because it was a net exporter of oil. In 1996, however, Egyptian oil production peaked and in 2006 it became a net importer of oil. Without oil, Egypt has little other than tourism dollars to pay for further food imports. While population continues to grow by two per cent annually, the situation is likely to get worse.
It will be interesting to see what energy mix the Japanese choose to get them through the current energy crunch as they shift away from nuclear. Too much dependence on oil, now that global conventional supplies have peaked, may not be wise. On the other hand, a move to renewables as the Germans have done may be the best economic course, and certainly the most environmentally desirable one.
Global banking giant HSBC has noted that the cost of key renewable energy technologies is falling more rapidly than thought. Wind is already competitive with fossil fuels in many energy markets. HSBC forecasts, as have the Chinese, US and Indian governments in recent months, that solar is likely to achieve grid parity with conventional fuels in the second half of this decade.
Some energy analysts say that Japan sits on about 20,000 MW of geothermal energy, though not all of this could be developed. Nevertheless, it would go a long way towards meeting their energy needs. And unlike Egypt, Japan's population is declining - by 0.2 per cent last year. While some bemoan the distortion to the age structure, it does mean that the population might decline to a more sustainable level, one that is in balance with its resources.
Jenny Goldie
Michelago NSW Australia
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