Not all of the news from the United States is bad (update)

California state Governor, Jerry Brown, speaking to the American Geophysical Union Fall​ Meeting (San Francisco 12-16 December 2016), on California’s plans to continue to act against climate change.



In the last few days (post Trump inauguration). Governor Jerry Brown, delivered the State of the State address, including a similar statement on climate change. To avoid lengthy procedural matters, the video starts playing at 19:30



If after watching the above, you are confused by the reference to, “alternative facts”, watch this



If the video above no longer works for you, try this:

/ President Trump President Donald J Trump climate change global warming science truth lies alternative facts state of the state address greenhouse gas carbon dioxide pollution /

Good news – renewables are now the largest source of installed power in the world!

Credit: The Brattle Group/Google

“Renewables have surpassed coal last year to become the largest source of installed power capacity in the world.” – International Energy Agency (IEA)

More good news – “Over the next five years, renewables will remain the fastest-growing source of electricity generation, with their share growing to 28% in 2021 from 23% in 2015.” – IEA

IEA – “IEA raises its five-year renewable growth forecast as 2015 marks record year”
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-its-five-year-renewable-growth-forecast-as-2015-marks-record-year.html

Electrek – “Renewable energy overtakes coal as world’s largest source of power capacity”, https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/renewable-energy-overtakes-coal-as-worlds-largest-source-of-power-capacity/

Climate Council – “Historic milestone: renewables now largest source of installed power in the world”
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/renewables-now-largest-source-of-installed-power-in-the-world / International Energy Agency significantly increasing five-year growth forecast renewables strong policy support key countries sharp cost reductions renewables surpassed coal become largest source installed power capacity in the world latest edition IEA’s Medium-Term Renewable Market Report renewables growing 13% more between last year’s forecast stronger policy backing United States China India Mexico forecast period costs expected drop by a quarter solar PV 15 percent onshore wind turning point renewables wind solar renewables more than half new power capacity around the world reaching record 153 Gigawatt GW 15% more than the previous year gains driven record-level wind additions 66 GW solar PV additions 49 GW half a million solar panels installed every day around world last year China accounted about half the wind additions 40% all renewable capacity increases two wind turbines installed every hour 2015 witnessing transformation global power markets led renewables center of gravity renewable growth moving to emerging markets Dr Fatih Birol IEA’s executive director many factors behind remarkable achievement more competition enhanced policy support key markets technology improvements climate change mitigation powerful driver renewables many countries cutting deadly air pollution diversifying energy supplies improve energy security play equally strong role growing low-carbon energy sources especially emerging Asia next five years renewables remain fastest-growing source electricity generation their share growing 28% 2021 23% in 2015 renewables are expected cover more than 60% increase world electricity generation over medium term rapidly closing the gap with coal generation from renewables expected exceed 7600 TWh by 2021 equivalent total electricity generation United States European Union put together today 2015 was an exceptional year grounds for caution policy uncertainty persists too many countries slowing down the pace of investments rapid progress variable renewables such as wind solar PV exacerbating system integration issues in a number of markets cost of financing remains barrier many developing countries progress in renewable growth heat and transport sectors remains slow needs significantly stronger policy efforts IEA two-speed world renewable electricity over next five years Asia takes the lead in renewable growth region’s fast-paced rise electricity demand China alone responsible 40% global renewable power growth represents only half country’s electricity demand increase contrast European Union Japan United States where additional renewable generation outpace electricity demand growth between 2015 and 2021 IEA report identifies policy market frameworks boost renewable capacity growth by almost 30% next five years annual market 200 GW by 2020 accelerated growth put the world on a firmer path to meeting long-term climate goals records for renewables projections growth over the next five years more optimistic Dr. Birol higher expectations remain modest huge untapped potential renewables IEA working with governments around the world maximize deployment renewables in coming years /

Vigo electric motorcycle from Eco Motorcycles UK

If the video looks good, check the specs

Specifications from the Eco Motorcycles web site¹
Range 400 miles (640 km)
Battery Capacity 21 kWh
Life 250,000 miles (400,000 km)
Motor Power 90 kW (120 horsepower)
Acceleration 3.2 seconds to 60 mph (100 kmh)
Max Speed 180 mph (290 km/h)
Total Weight 350 pounds (160 kg)

And if you like the specs, you'll love the price:

Estimated Retail Price £7,999 (9,799 USD)¹ [$13,160 Australian]
Special Price (for supporters) £5,999 (7,499 USD) [$9,866 Australian]

Just to put this in perspective, compare with a Zero Motorcycles SR ZF13.0

Zero SR ZF13.0 with 13.0 kWh battery²
Zero Battery 13.0 kWh
“City” speed range is quoted as 161 miles (259 km)
Highway, 55 mph (89 km/h) 98 miles (158 km)
Highway, 70 mph (113 km/h) 81 miles (130 km)
Top speed (max) 102 mph (164 km/h)
Top speed (sustained) 95 mph (153 km/h)

Note how the range of the Zero declines with speed. Scaling the 161 mile (259 km), “City”, speed range of the Zero to allow for the larger battery in the Vigo (21 kWh verses 13.0 kWh), suggests that the Vigo will have 260 miles (418 km),³ rather than the 400 miles (640 km) claimed by Eco Motorcycles.

City riding implies stop-start driving. Regenerative braking isn't 100%. Extraordinary distances can be covered on a straight, flat road at a constant, low speed, but such numbers aren't a useful guide to the distance a vehicle will cover, on a single charge, on a trip, or around town.

In addition to developing the Vigo, Eco Motorcycles is a retailer of Zero electric motorcycles. Their web site offers the Zero SR ZF13.0 for £13,500.

Is any of the above possible?

Price – Eco Motorcycles claims it has in development, a motorcycle with 160% of the battery for 59% of the price (44% at the “supporter” price) of the current competition.

Performance – Zero makes no claims re acceleration. Top speed of 102 mph is probably electronically limited to preserve range. Power quoted for the Vigo is 90 kW. Comparison with internal combustion motorcycles suggests a top speed closer to 150 mph,⁴ rather than the 180 claimed.

Range – even assuming the claim of 400 miles of range is at, “city”, speed, the claimed range of the Vigo seems to defy the laws of physics for any practical purpose.

What can we expect in the Vigo electric motor cycle?

Right now, nothing – the Vigo is, “currently in development”. If a commercial product did not eventuate, it would not be the first development project from a startup manufacturer to fail. But there is no doubt that battery prices will continue to fall for some time. A motorcycle with 21 kWh battery in the quoted price range may be possible within a few years.

Top speed & range on the other hand – given the specs, both are likely to be better than the Zero SR ZF13.0, but are not likely to equal the claimed 180 mph & 400 miles of range.
__________

¹ Eco Motorcycles: “Vigo”, http://eco-motorcycles.co.uk/vigo

Update: Vigo’s web page has changed since this article was first posted. Best source of information previously included there, is now the Indiegogo page at

Indiegogo: “VIGO: Electric Motorcycle of the Future”
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/vigo-electric-motorcycle-of-the-future/x/9010251#/

² Zero Motorcycles: “Zero SR ZF13.0”, http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/au/zero-s-specs?model=sr

³ 161 * 21 / 13 = 260

⁴ Wikipedia: “List of fastest production motorcycles”, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_motorcycles#Fastest_production_motorcycles

/ video check specs specifications Eco Motorcycles web site range 400 miles 640 km battery capacity 21 kWh battery life motor power 90 kW 120 horsepower acceleration 3.2 seconds 60 mph 100 kmh max speed 180 mph 290 km/h weight 350 pounds 160 kg specs price estimated retail price £7,999 $US9,799 USD $A13,160 Australian special price supporters £5,999 $US7,499 USD $A9,866 Australian Zero Motorcycles SR ZF13.0 Zero SR ZF13.0 13.0 kWh battery Zero Battery 13.0 kWh city speed range 161 miles 259 km highway speed 55 mph 89 km/h 98 miles 158 km highway speed 70 mph 113 km/h 81 miles 130 km top speed 102 mph 164 km/h range Zero scaling 161 mile 259 km city speed range Zero larger battery Vigo 21 kWh 13.0 kWh 260 miles 418 km 400 miles 640 km claimed Eco Motorcycles developing Vigo Eco Motorcycles retailer Zero electric motorcycles Zero SR ZF13.0 price Eco Motorcycles in development motorcycle 160% bigger battery 59% price supporter price current competition performance Zero acceleration power quoted Vigo 90 kW 73% greater 52 kW claimed Zero higher top speed top speed 73% more power aerodynamic drag increases as the square of the speed range claim of 400 miles range city speed claimed range Vigo seems to defy the laws of physics Vigo electric motorcycle motor cycle Vigo currently in development commercial product first development project startup manufacturer fail battery prices will continue to fall motorcycle 21 kWh battery quoted price range adjusted inflation likely to be possible within a few years top speed range specs specifications better than Zero SR ZF13.0 Eco Motorcycles Vigo Zero Motorcycles Zero SR ZF13 /

Note 7 fires – what Samsung found

Schematic of Samsung Galaxy Note 7 lithium ion battery
Credit: Samsung

Since recall of the Galaxy Note 7,¹ 96% of 3 million Note 7s have been returned globally. Hard to imagine why the remaining 4% haven't been returned, given their safety record, & the ongoing shutting down of service around the world.^2,3

Investigations have included a large number of charge/discharge cycles on 200,000 Note 7 devices & 30,000 Note 7 batteries by 700 researchers. Underlying cause is short circuiting inside Note 7 batteries arising from manufacturing & product quality issues.

Storage capacity of a lithium ion battery, such as the one in your phone, depends substantially on the surface area of the electrodes. To this end, the electrodes are wound around each other, as shown in the diagram above. To prevent short circuits, they have a separator wound between them. Also present, but not shown in the diagram, is insulating tape.

Defects Samsung identified:
● bending of negative electrode by the battery case

● bending of negative electrode due to incorrect positioning in the curve at the thin side of the battery

● high welding burrs on the positive electrode causing it to penetrate the insulation tape (not shown in the schematic above) & separator causing an internal short circuit

● some batteries had missing insulation tape

More detail in the Samsung report – “Galaxy Note7: What We Discovered”, https://news.samsung.com/global/infographic-galaxy-note7-what-we-discovered
__________

¹ Hitchhikers Guide 2 Tech: “Samsung pulls the plug on the Note 7”, https://hhg2tech.blogspot.com/2016/10/samsung-pulls-plug-on-note-7.html

² ITNews: “Samsung is kicking Galaxy Note 7 users off Aussie telco networks”, http://www.itnews.com.au/news/samsung-is-kicking-galaxy-note-7-users-off-aussie-telco-networks-443170

³ Fortune – “Here’s How Samsung Will Disable Unreturned Galaxy Note 7 Devices”, https://fortune.com/2016/12/09/samsung-kill-galaxy-note-7/

/ Samsung internal short-circuiting internal short circuit batteries battery caused fires Samsung Electronics found internal short circuiting Samsung Galaxy Note 7 batteries caused phones heat up catch on fire catch fire Note 7 launched globally users reported batteries catching on fire Samsung announced global product replacement program swap problematic batteries problems continued device discontinued globally press conference headquarters Seoul South Korea president Samsung's mobile communications business DJ Koh apologised customers retailers business partners invested all efforts substantial resources analyse every aspect failure fully investigate the causes over 700 researchers engineers spent months analysing 200,000 Note 7 devices 30,000 Note 7 batteries devices batteries repeatedly charged discharged simulating incidents in the field incidents caused battery cell focus investigation batteries 96 per cent of 3 million devices sold activated globally returned Samsung conducted internal review independent reviews UL safety science organisation Exponent US-based consulting engineering firm TuvRheinland German-based company batteries sourced two suppliers presentation UL president consumer business Sajeev Jesudas organisation found assembly manufacturing issues batteries suppliers product quality issues batteries higher energy density batteries increase severity battery failure design manufacturing issues batteries field failures Note 7 devices Note 7 handsets lithium-ion batteries arranged in layers positive negative electrodes physical separator between short circuit battery cell damage separator Samsung says it won't happen again South Korean company improved its processes Samsung developed battery check protocol invited researchers academics provide analysis ensure battery safety /

New 2017 Tesla Model S 100D version rated at 335 miles of electric range

Credit: Pinterest

Tesla has had a 100kWh battery for some time, but it has only been available in the performance-oriented P100D, with an EPA combined range of 315 miles (510km). As of the last few days, Tesla’s Model S 100D has become available, with an EPA combined range extended to 335 miles (539 km). In addition to being the best range available in any commercial electric car, it is only 8.5% less than the EPA-rated 366 miles (589 km) of the 2017 Honda Clarity hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

In Australia, using the less stringent NEDC standard, the Model S 100D is rated at 632 km (393 miles).

Not surprisingly, Tesla's Model X also gets the 100kWh non-performance battery pack option.

Electrek – “Tesla releases new Model S 100D with 335 miles of range – longest range EV in the world yet”, https://electrek.co/2017/01/20/tesla-longest-range-car-model-s-100d-with-335-miles/

Road & Track – “Tesla Model S 100D Launches With World's Best Driving Range, 335 Miles”, http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/news/a32356/tesla-launches-non-performance-model-s-100d-trim-with-335-miles-of-range/

Car & Driver – “Tesla Adds Non-P 100D Models to Its Lineup, Claims Additional Driving Range”, http://blog.caranddriver.com/tesla-adds-non-p-100d-models-to-its-lineup-claims-additional-driving-range/

Green Car Reports – “New Tesla Model S 100D version rated at 335 miles of electric range”, http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108470_new-tesla-model-s-100d-version-gets-335-miles-of-electric-range / Tesla introduced P100D battery Model S Model X performance version pack non-performance version Tesla updated online design studio 100D version Tesla Model S Tesla Model X P100D battery pack Model S Tesla’s flagship car quickest production car in the world electric car longest range in the world P100D title new Model S 100D P100D EPA estimated range 315 miles new 100D 335 miles Tesla’s 100 kWh battery pack Model S P100D new 100D 90D very popular option Tesla’s longest-range option Tesla’s longest-range option Tesla electric vehicle buyers value range boosts automaker many options range lineup new 100D available Model X extends range all electric SUV 295 miles less than the performance version new option boost Tesla’s sales increasing range single charge longest range option significantly reducing its price /

NHTSA report on fatal Tesla crash makes a strong case for Autopilot safety – update

On 07 May 2016, a Telsa Model S was involved in a fatal crash, while in Autopilot.^1,2 NHTSA began an investigation on 28 June 2016, & made its report available just 2 days ago.

Final report on Autopilot issued by @NHTSAgov is very positive https://t.co/KsOZSrr3l9

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 19, 2017

At the time of this post, the link to the NHTSA report in the tweet, above, is broken, but the report is imbedded in the Electrek article linked below.

Update 24 January – link to the NHTSA report in the tweet above, is fixed.

NHTSA summary of their findings concluded:

“A safety-related defect trend has not been identified at this time and further examination of this issue does not appear to be warranted. Accordingly, this investigation is closed. The closing of this investigation does not constitute a finding by NHTSA that no safety-related defect exists. The agency will monitor the issue and reserves the right to take future action if warranted by the circumstances. For more information about the analysis, see the attached report.”

Despite the careful language in the quote above, Figure 11 from the NHTSA report (below) makes a strong case for Autopilot, & Autosteer in particular:


Credit: NHTSA/Electrek

Which Elon Musk subsequently described with a quote from the NHTSA report:

Report highlight: “The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation.”

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 19, 2017

Electrek – “Tesla’s crash rate was reduced by 40% after introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA”
https://electrek.co/2017/01/19/tesla-crash-rate-autopilot-nhtsa/

Wired – “After Probing Tesla’s Deadly Crash, Feds Say Yay to Self-Driving”
https://www.wired.com/2017/01/probing-teslas-deadly-crash-feds-say-yay-self-driving/?mbid=nl_12017_p4&CNDID=

Bloomberg – “Tesla’s Autopilot Vindicated With 40% Drop in Crashes”, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/tesla-s-autopilot-vindicated-with-40-percent-drop-in-crashes
__________

¹ Hitchhiker's Guide 2 Tech: “Tesla driver dies in Autopilot crash”, https://hhg2tech.blogspot.com/2016/07/tesla-driver-dies-in-autopilot-crash.html

² Hitchhiker's Guide 2 Tech: “Tesla Autopilot death – was the driver watching a movie?”, http://hhg2tech.blogspot.com/2016/07/tesla-autopilot-death-was-driver.html / reported NHTSA closing investigation fatal accident Tesla Autopilot without finding defect issuing recall access full report interesting key findings crash Tesla’s Autopilot agency reviewed data indicates Tesla’s crash rate reduced by 40% after Autopilot Autosteer feature introduced enabled Autosteer main feature Autopilot system enables vehicle steer itself certain conditions NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation ODI reviewed crash rate data Tesla’s vehicles before and after introduction Autosteer ODI analyzed mileage airbag deployment data supplied Tesla MY 2014 through 2016 Model S 2016 Model X vehicles equipped Autopilot Technology Package installed vehicle when sold through OTA update calculate crash rates miles traveled prior after Autopilot installation conclusion the data show Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation 1.3 crashes per million miles before Autosteer 0.8 crashes after Autosteer data particularly interesting context debate between going directly fully autonomous cars gradually more autonomous vehicles leading full autonomy Tesla other automakers argument transition between autonomy manual control dangerous Tesla’s argument reduces number accidents used properly data appears to confirm NHTSA’s general probe Tesla’s Autopilot system agency specific accident prompted investigation interesting finding crash itself NHTSA did crash reconstruction claims indicates that tractor trailer should have been visible Tesla driver at least seven seconds prior to impact report’s main conclusion Autopilot ADAS system require continual full attention driver monitor traffic environment prepared take action avoid crashes agency reviewed Tesla’s customer-facing literature Autopilot concluded Tesla provided information about system limitations owner’s manuals user interface associated warnings alerts driver monitoring system intended aid driver remaining engaged driving task all times NHTSA urges drivers read all instructions and warnings before using driver assist systems /

2015 was the hottest year on record – until 2016

Credit: NASA

2014 was the hottest year on record – until 2015.¹ Then during 2016, a series of record hot months threatened another record year² – which NASA & NOAA have just reported, came to pass.

NASA – “NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally”
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

Australian Broadcasting Corporation – “2016 crowned hottest year on record: Australia needs to get heat smart”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/2016-hottest-year-on-record-australia-needs-to-get-heat-smart/8194182

New York Times – “Earth Sets a Temperature Record for the Third Straight Year”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/science/earth-highest-temperature-record.html?_r=0

Washington Post – “U.S. scientists officially declare 2016 the hottest year on record. That makes three in a row.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/18/u-s-scientists-officially-declare-2016-the-hottest-year-on-record-that-makes-three-in-a-row/?utm_term=.0cbe69e7aa27

Green Car Reports – “2016 was planet's hottest year on record, third new high in a row”
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108420_2016-was-planets-hottest-year-on-record-third-new-high-in-a-row
__________

¹ Hitchhiker's Guide 2 Tech: “2014 was the hottest year on record – until 2015”, https://hhg2tech.blogspot.com/2016/07/2014-was-hottest-year-on-record-until.html

² Hitchhiker's Guide 2 Tech: “July 2016 was the hottest month ever recorded”, https://hhg2tech.blogspot.com/2016/08/july-2016-was-hottest-month-ever.html / NASA NOAA data 2016 warmest year on record globally Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures warmest since modern record keeping began 1880 independent analyses NASA National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration NOAA globally averaged temperatures 2016 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit 0.99 degrees Celsius warmer mid-20th century mean 2016 third year in a row set a new record for global average surface temperatures 2016 temperatures continue long-term warming trend analisis analyses scientists NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS New York NOAA scientists concur finding 2016 warmest year on record separate independent analyses data weather station locations measurement practices change over time uncertainties interpretation specific year-to-year global mean temperature differences taking this into account NASA estimates 2016 warmest year greater than 95 percent certainty 2016 remarkably third record year in a row in this series GISS Director Gavin Schmidt record years every year ongoing long-term warming trend is clear planet’s average surface temperature risen 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit 1.1 degrees Celsius since late 19th century change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide other human-made emissions into the atmosphere /