My take: established manufacturers will be happy to continue to make a minimal effort while Tesla works out how to make it happen. E.g. General Motors developed a T-shaped battery for the EV1 & Volt. Tesla showed them that flat, under the floor was the way to go, & they adopted that for the Bolt (along with other manufacturers).
On the other hand, many manufacturers don't appear to have noticed that most of the advantages of front wheel drive don't apply once a relatively tall, heavy internal combustion engine isn’t part of the design equation.
When all of the problems are solved & what the market wants becomes clearer, established manufactures expect to be able to scale development &/or token production to take back the market. Nissan is an exception.1
Strength of this strategy is largely obvious – leverage Tesla's huge R&D effort & the fact that Elon Musk is smarter than any of the competition’s engineers or management. (“He is by far the single smartest person that I have ever worked with … period.”)2
Perhaps their best hope is that Tesla will continue to share its technology.3,4
__________
1Nissan has been an exception – CEO Ghosn has been committed to EVs & developing them in-house since at least 2008:
/ Tesla win big race to sell electric cars to the world German analyst competition from traditional manufacturers complacent Elon Musk California upstart near monopoly of the market Tesla out investing the competition hampers itself save money building on legacy engineering developing new focused technology report analyst Alexander Haissl Hamburg Germany-based Berenberg Bank readiness Tesla’s competition Daimler’s Mercedes best prepared Volkswagen BMW dithering GM General Motors Chevrolet Bolt Ford FCA strong ratings manufacturer complacency electric vehicle EV electric car technology developing EVs mass-market adoption lack of real action strategic commitments underlying convictionno clear pathway to high-volume EV production Haissl Tesla near-monopolistic opportunity gain market share outcompete incumbent automotive industry /
Scientific American – ‘Gut Feelings – the “Second Brain” in Our Gastrointestinal Systems’ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gut-feelings-the-second-brain-in-our-gastrointestinal-systems-excerpt// stomach dark mystery most of us new research revealing surprising ways our guts exert control over our mood and appetite stomach digestion in action London's Science Museum watched live pictures from my own stomach porridge eaten for breakfast churned broken up exposed to acid pushed out small intestine creamy mush called chyme swallowed miniature camera pill travelling through my digestive system projecting images onto a giant screen stomach complex work control the little brain network of neurons line stomach and your gut 100 million cells in your gut many as there are in the head of a cat little brain complex thinking essential daily grind digesting food mixing contracting absorbing break down food begin extracting nutrients vitamins we need neurons neuron lining our digestive system keep in close contact brain in your skull vagus nerves influence our emotional state experience butterflies in the stomach brain in the stomach talking to the brain in your head get nervous or fearful blood diverted from our gut to our muscles stomach's way of protesting hunger hormones accommodate big meal stomach has to expand size of a fist around 2 litres 40-fold increase stretch receptors stomach told the brain stomach was full time to stop eating hunger signals produced by your stomach far more sophisticated doctors treat grown to 20 stone heart attack lose weight gastric bypass operation reducing size of the stomach smaller the stomach the less you eat surgeon Mr Ahmed Ahmed London's Charing Cross Hospital surgery you're producing changes in various hormones chemical messengers affect hunger levels fullness levels cause the weight loss gastric bypass surgery isolated part stomach produces most ghrelin hormone play a key role in making you feel hungry permanent fall in production of ghrelin new shrunken stomach attached further down his small intestine ileum secretes a different gut hormone PYY responsible for making you feel full normally takes 20 minutes for food to get from the stomach to the ileum causing release of PYY message to the brain I'm full better to eat slowly give stomach chance tell the brain you have had enough before you overeat ileum stomach brain already lost three stone eat a small amount of food and I feel full lose more weight gastric bypass available extreme cases intense interest developing drugs mimic actions PYY brain rules our decision-making process operations our guts very profound effect how we behave big meal third of your blood supply diverted to your guts digest guts human stomach /
Looks like a bunch of fun to share with your dog – which begs the question, why not just throw the ball & leave out the device? Perhaps KaWoof would be useful if the dog owner has a shoulder injury, or some other disability, that makes throwing impractical. Or is the purpose of KaWoof to let the dog play fetch without a human present?
It would be interesting to see how long (or even if) a dog (or dogs) would continue to use KaWoof with no human present.
KaWoof is a Kickstarter project – funding ends in 27 days.
Kickstarter – “KaWoof - Natural ball launcher for your dog” https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/loewenpracht/kawoof-natural-ball-launcher-for-your-dog / KaWoof ecological ecologically produced ball launcher dogs runs completely without electricity dog toys made out of plastic non natural toxic materials dog toys we wanted to make a difference making dog toys training gadgets invented natural ball launcher KaWoof KaWoof regrowing material wood designed work big and small dogs four strength settings adjust to your dog’s needs dog should at least weigh weight 5kg use KaWoof developed throwing arm use different ball sizes no expensive balls needed golfball sized ball tennis ball all sizes work KaWoof developing analyzing KaWoof 3D software optimize our product Kai Hillebrand inventor developer KaWoof ball catapult built Christmas present his mother Christa Hillebrand dogs his mother had so much fun first prototype further developed KaWoof Christa Hillebrand dog trainer hairy four-legged friends many years of experience dogs KaWoof prototype mature in design and function organization materials optimization production process next challenge small family business design KaWoof designed partial automation CNC milling machine produce required quantities high quality support project /
The government-led push to modernize its telecommunications system was unprecedented, experts say – & provides a cautionary tale for others who might like to try something similar.
“Australia was the first country where a totally national plan to cover every house or business was considered,” said Rod Tucker, a University of Melbourne professor & a member of the expert panel that advised on the effort. “The fact it was a government plan didn’t necessarily make it doomed. In Australia, we have changes of governments every three years, which really works against the ability to undertake long-term planning, & the long-term rollouts of networks like this.”
The New York Times – “How Australia Bungled Its $36 Billion High-Speed Internet Rollout” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/world/australia/australia-slow-internet-broadband.html/ modernize modernise how Australia bungled Its $36 billion high-speed internet rollout Brisbane Australia internet speeds trail developed world Morgan Jaffit more reliable data transfer postal system downloaded Hand of Fate action video game studio Brisbane Defiant Development audio designer Melbourne quicker send hard drive by road than to upload the files big file sizes kill us release update small bug kill us by three or four days Australia wealthy nation widely envied quality of life lags in one essential area of modern life internet speed country began unprecedented broadband modernization effort cost at least 49 billion Australian dollars $36 billion average internet speed lags United States Western Europe Japan South Korea most recent ranking internet speeds Akamai networking company Australia embarrassing No. 51 trailing developing economies Thailand Kenya slow broadband connection frustration Instagram video buffer buffering delay problem sluggish Netflix stream slurred Skype call businesses complain slow speeds hobble effectiveness add to costs Australia risks being left behind countries China India start-up cultures match succss Silicon Valley keep their economies on the cutting edge start up startup poor broadband speeds hold back Australia competitive advantage John O’Mahony economist Deloitte Access Economics 2015 report Deloitte valued nation’s digital economy $58 billion worth 50 percent more by 2020 speed growth at risk broadband to support it Australia’s costly internet bungle hazards mingling telecommunication infrastructure impatience modern politics Internet modernization plan hobbled by cost overruns partisan maneuvering major technical compromise 19th-century technology country’s 21st-century digital backbone homes and businesses government-led push modernize telecommunications system unprecedented experts cautionary tale Australia first country totally national plan cover every house or business Rod Tucker University of Melbourne professor government plan doomed Australia changes of governments every three years works against ability undertake long-term planning long-term rollout networks Australia natural connectivity challenges oceans away from other countries network connect far-flung cities separated sparsely populated interior Australia high hopes ambitious internet project started 2009 initiative National Broadband Network NBN advanced fiber-optic technology every home business estimated cost 43 billion Australian dollars government private sector failed policy Australia broadband backwater Kevin Rudd then prime minister leader Labor Party government share costs quickly climbed taxpayers responsible for all of it technology slow roll out negotiations Telstra Australia big telecommunications provider installing fiber Telstra spokesman talks delays government-funded effort government funded drew fire Liberal Party opposition the private sector Liberal-led coalition elected 2013 contain costs speed up rollout focused telecommunications industry the last mile wires connect home business broader network National Broadband Network envisioned high-speed fiber connecting homes businesses directly network Liberal conservative compromised connecting existing copper wire same technology earliest days of the telephone critics slow speeds did not stop rising costs Australia had aggressive, forward-looking visionary government project build fiber network Mike Quigley chief executive project until 2013 opportunity lost bad judgments ideologically politically driven spokeswoman Liberal Party connecting new users Labor Party party fixing the internet campaign platforms national elections how difficult the problem will be to solve average speeds have more than doubled since 2013 Akamai other countries are connecting their populations faster Australia’s lag with the rest of the world has grown big businesses can opt to pay for fast connections, but the cost can be considerable GO1 education technology company near Brisbane spent $22,000 speed upgrade September 2015 pays $1,000 per month high-speed 100 megabit connection software company two main costs internet and staff Andrew Barnes chief executive co-founder lower more to spend on building the team employees Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam far fewer issues joining the company’s weekly webinars Vietnam telephone wires are just a mess despite obvious infrastructure problems Internet much much better video game industry pushed for better speeds dirt roads Ben Britten chief technology officer Mighty Games Group Senate hearing his industry’s future trying to push huge semi trucks down dirt roads need to have some highways look for ways around the barriers old-fashioned radio Nick Lorenzi Cairns northeastern Queensland frustrated with copper wire speeds just a few miles away much faster fiber connection information technology worker bandwidth from two transmitter dishes that cost $440 total Internet was rubbish up really high on a hill take advantage of that copper based connection speed just rubbish Internet just pathetic, really /
With just 7 built to-date, & 10 more planned, NIO’s EP9 is not a good fit for the description, “production car”, which some are prepared to give it. But it is road legal. From the look of it, make that, “barely road legal racer”.
One of the more interesting things about the EP9 is that, driven at competition speeds on the Nürburgring, a Tesla Model S drops into reduced power mode due to increasing battery temperature.1 A time of 6:45.90,2 suggests that the EP9 has the battery heating problem under control. Equally, a build price of $1.2 million3 (notice that’s, “build price”, not, “retail price”), suggests, “cost is no object”, is part of NIO’s solution.
/ Tesla Model S racing series Electric GT World Series grid modified Model S zero-emissions GT road car based racing championships begin 2017 car grid Tesla Model S P85+ new championship Electric GT World Series seven-race season 2017 races Europe America Asia organisers tracks used Barcelona Spain Donington UK Mugello Italy Estoril Portugal 10 teams team two modified Tesla Model S P85+ road cars power unit control software unchanged standard road car 416hp horsepower 601Nm torque changes aerodynamics suspension brakes more suitable for racing car's weight reduced tearing out unneeded upholstery battery's cooling system improved drivers foot on the throttle longer Agustin Paya professional racing driver promoter Electric GT World Series P85+ rear-wheel-drive newer P90D all-wheel-drive chosen more suitable for racing easier to fix in a pinch drivers prefer RWD track future Formula E plan Electric GT World Series allow range different cars grid Tesla Model S one of the best cars ever made best 100 percent electric cars luxurious super tourer made for racing weight distribution low centre of gravity considerable mass more than two tons allows unbelievable cornering speed unending torque add up great racing car testing Barcelona Catalunya F1 Circuit Madrid Jarama circuit Model S GT champion Electric GT pull in the punters Formula E engine noise Model S much larger battery Formula E cars car-switching battery back swapping races last more than 100 or 150 miles Tesla racing exciting techies Teslaphiles tune in favourite car electric race car racing car lithium ion LiIon battery charge recharge range Electric vehicle EV decimating records internal combustion engine vehicles ICE vehicle NIO NextEV $1.48 million electric supercar NIO EP9 set a new lap record one of the world’s most famous and grueling racetracks Nurburgring Nordschleife electric car time of 6:45.90 fastest lap ever set by an electric vehicle around the track faster than any production vehicle electric beating Lamborghini Huracan Performante over 6 seconds fastest lap ever done by any production vehicle EP9 production vehicle NIO built seven EP9 plans another production run of ten more cars small number of units smaller production runs high prices McLaren F1 XP5 prototype production vehicles EP9 Nordschleife famously difficult track benchmark overall vehicle performance length and grueling nature track over 12 miles long German countryside includes high and low speed turns varied road surfaces lots of bumps and hills NIO EP9 lap of 7:05.12 suboptimal conditions cold and slightly moist track surface electric vehicle record beating handful street-legal gasoline-powered vehicles Huracan Aventador Porsche 918 big deal EV company with no racing heritage not even any automaking heritage beat cars from companies century of racing experience toughest track in the world incredibly impressive new lap NIO video video EV-record-setting lap /
EPA – information on climate change deleted Credit: Kris Tripplaar/Sipa USA/Newscom/Daily Signal
Although the new US administration is implementing a modern day book burning,1 it’s not time to give up hope just yet – material on climate change recently deleted by the EPA, has been reposted by The City of Chicago:
/ coders rescued NASA’s Earth science data coders took action to make NASA’s climate data safe UC Berkeley’s campus 200 adults Doe Library rescue federal climate data groups more than 20 cities believe Trump administration might want to disappear this data down a memory hole hackers scientists students collecting save outside government servers groups like DataRefuge Environmental Data and Governance Initiative organized Berkeley hackathon collect data from NASA’s earth sciences programs Department of Energy doing more than archiving diehard coders building robust systems monitor ongoing changes to government websites keeping track of what’s been removed learn exactly when the pruning began Tag It Bag It data collection is methodical group immediately sets web crawlers easily-copied government pages sending text Internet Archive digital library hundreds billions snapshots webpages tag more data-intensive projects pages lots links databases interactive graphics for the other group called baggers coders write custom scripts scrape complicated data sets sprawling patched together federal websites systems written piecemeal over 30 years no coherent philosophy providing data websites Daniel Roesler chief technology officer UtilityAPI volunteer guides Berkeley bagger group coder who goes by Tek download multi-satellite precipitation data NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center starting August access Goddard Earth Science Data required login totally legal digging around site DataRefuge prohibits hacking Tek found buried link old FTP server clicked started downloading data all of 2016 some 2015 non-coders hit dead-ends too 404 Page not found errors NASA’s Earth Observing System website empty databases Global Change Data Center reports archive NASA’s atmospheric CO2 datasets real problem when or why data disappeared backed it up scientists understand it better DataRefuge EDGI monitoring changes and deletions building software that can do it automatically Future Farming most advanced software builders tools they’ll need filters separate mundane updates major shake-ups explored blockchain-like systems build auditable ledgers of alterations engineers call version control how do you know if something has changed How do you know if you have the latest How do you keep track of the old stuff writing code volunteers signed build tools DataRefuge EDGI organizers movement vast decentralized network from all 50 states and Canada volunteers code tracking software archive a little bit every day group had collectively loaded 8,404 NASA DOE webpages web pages Internet Archive covering the entirety of NASA’s earth science efforts built backdoors download 25 gigabytes from 101 public datasets scripts larger datasets finished running mood was somber still so much work to do climate change data just the tip of the iceberg Eric Kansa anthropologist manages archaeological data archiving non-profit group Open Context huge number of other datasets being threatened with cultural historical sociological information National Parks Service huge data portal contains park visitation stats GIS boundaries inventories of species computer ran scripts pull out a list everything in the portal working his way through each quirky dataset /
Martin Eberhard & Marc Tarpenning, were the founders of the Tesla electric car company. Elon Musk came along later as an investor, flush with Paypal money.
In October 2016, the Tesla founders, spoke at Stanford University on a range of topics, including electric cars, lithium, hydrogen, energy, car-to-grid & climate change.
● Solving problems from first principles (01:42)
“Somewhere along the way, I started thinking that maybe this global warming thing was not a hoax & that maybe that the wars we were having in the Middle East were at least somehow involved in oil & decided that we needed to do something different. I did not start off as an electric car enthusiast, my interest was just simply using less energy. So I spent some time doing a real careful well to wheel energy analysis for every kind of technology I could find & built a spreadsheet that calculated the actual energy footprint & carbon footprint of every pathway I could find … & it was to both of our surprise, that the electric car pathway was not just better than the other choices that were out there, that included hydrogen & every form of petroleum & natural gas & so on, it wasn’t just better, it was dramatically better. So much better that it was stunning to us that no one else was doing it.” – Martin Eberhard
Elon Musk has spoken about the importance of approaching problems from first principles.1 In the quote above, Martin Eberhard, seems to be describing doing just that. Which begs the question: Did Elon Musk learn the importance of approaching problems from first principles from the Tesla founders?
● Tesla – naming the company (03:44)
● Why was the first product a small sports car? (30:00)
● How did they decide that Lotus would be the best source of a rolling chassis? (06:00)
● Lithium – sources, use in batteries, & recycling (16:25)
● Hydrogen fuel cells (22:00)
“Hydrogen is not a fuel … to make elemental hydrogen, to make H2, you have to put energy in. … the efficiency of that, if I’m using the very best technology available today, is in the order of 20-22% efficient. Compare that to a lithium battery which runs in the order of 95% efficient. It’s just not worth it. The hydrogen fuel cell car will require ... 3 to 4 times as much of whatever your source fuel is …”2,3,4 – Martin Eberhard
● Vehicle-to-grid (40:50)
“There’s this whole concept of vehicle to grid storage. The idea is the vehicle could draw off the grid & put energy back on the grid. … There’s two troubles with that: one is that every cycle through your battery has some cost – it’s not zero. ... Second thing is that when you’re putting energy on to the grid, (as for example, does the inverter on your solar panel), it puts some pretty heavy-duty regulatory burden on the design ... of the car – it adds some non-trivial cost to the cost of the car.”
“But, there’s another thing to think about: & that is that you can get about 90% of that value, not by allowing the vehicle to put energy onto the grid, but rather, just allowing the grid to have precise control over the charging of the vehicle. So that it can say ... stop & start at this level in real time, OK? And what happens then if you have a large number of vehicles that are plugged in just statistically speaking is that all these electric cars can be used as grid regulation, & they can allow the power company to have a much much smaller amount of what’s called spinning reserve. That’s to say, generating capability that’s not being used. ... So that for example, when a big cloud passes over the giant solar panel array in the Mojave Desert, the grid then tells a whole lot of cars to, ‘Hey stop now,’ & they get off the grid, & when the wind starts honking on Altamont Pass, they can tell a bunch of cars to, ‘Hey start charging now.’ And you get about something like 90% of the value of the vehicle to grid idea, without actually taking energy out of the vehicles.” – Martin Eberhard
● Electric cars will become cheaper than internal combustion engine cars (46:12)
“I’ve been looking closely at the cost of batteries recently, & it’s my belief that the cost of making an electric car will match the cost of making an equivalent gasoline powered car, probably in 2020 or 2022 – it’s coming up pretty fast.” – Martin Eberhard
● Battery swapping (52:19)
“The reason that you would want to do that is because the batteries don’t have enough range, & the reason they don’t have enough range, is basically because they’re too expensive. … And so what you’re doing in a world of battery swapping is you’re taking the most expensive part of the car & you’re making it more expensive because I’ve got to have to have 20-30% more batteries around than I have cars, so I can swap them in.” – Martin Eberhard
● Adapting to climate change (1:09:50)
“Quote from ... some science fiction writer: ‘The future is here now, it’s just not evenly distributed.’ … that is in many ways true, like we know how to do this. We know how to have a really advanced society that is carbon neutral. It’s just hard & it’s only in a few places … it is possible. So, I figure ... we’re gonna have to adapt to the climate change – that train has left – the CO2 is there.” – Marc Tarpenning
/ Tesla Roadster Martin Eberhard Marc Tarpenning founders Tesla electric car company Elon Musk investor Paypal money October 2016 Tesla founders spoke Stanford University electric cars lithium hydrogen energy car-to-grid climate change solving problems from first principles global warming not a hoax wars in the Middle East involved in oil electric car enthusiast using less energy well to wheel energy analysis technology spreadsheet calculated energy footprint carbon footprint electric car pathway better than the other choices hydrogen petroleum natural gas dramatically better stunning to us that no one else was doing it Martin Eberhard Elon Musk importance of approaching problems from first principles Elon Musk learn importance of approaching problems from first principles Tesla founders Tesla naming the company first product a small sports car Lotus best source of a rolling chassis lithium sources batteries recycling hydrogen fuel cells hydrogen is not a fuel elemental hydrogen molecular hydrogen H2 you have to put energy in efficiency very best technology available today in the order of 20-22% efficient lithium battery 95% efficient hydrogen fuel cell car will require 3 to 4 times as much of whatever your source fuel is vehicle-to-grid vehicle to grid vehicle to grid storage vehicle put energy back on the grid every cycle through your battery has some cost not zero putting energy on to the grid inverter on your solar panel heavy-duty regulatory burden on the design car it adds some non-trivial cost to the cost of the car allowing the vehicle to put energy onto the grid grid to have precise control over the charging of the vehicle electric cars can be used as grid regulation power company much much smaller amount of spinning reserve generating capability that’s not being used big cloud passes over the giant solar panel array in the Mojave Desert Altamont Pass vehicle to grid load shedding sheddable shedable load electric cars will become cheaper than internal combustion engine cars cost of batteries cost of making an electric car will match the cost of making an equivalent gasoline powered car, probably in 2020 or 2022 it’s coming up pretty fast battery swapping batteries don’t have enough range too expensive most expensive part of the car making it more expensive swap them in adapting to climate change science fiction writer we know how to have a really advanced society that is carbon neutral we’re gonna have to adapt to the climate change HitchHiker’s Guide 2 Tech Tesla cell size comes from the first principles of physics & economics fuel cells batteries Battery electric vehicles outperform hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Honda Clarity all the shortcomings fundamental to fuel cell cars Tesla founders Martin Eberhard Marc Tarpenning electric vehicles start-ups Stanford University talk Tesla founders Martin Eberhard Marc Tarpenning controversial departure from Tesla partner early days of Tesla electric vehicles two engineer entrepreneurs shared interest fast cars environment starting companies lithium-ion lithium ion batteries what oil does to a local economy where our treasure ends up going pernicious effects of our fossil fuel addiction Middle East reducing fossil fuel usage Tesla was all about moving beyond gasoline this concept predates the involvement of Elon Musk initially came on board as an investor Elon Musk started as the company's biggest investor in the early days of the Roadster using less energy real careful well-to-wheels energy analysis dramatically better founding of Tesla /
