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Tuesday, 13 January 2015
GM 200-mile-range electric vehicle (update)
General Motors has shown off a concept version of its long-promised 200-mile-range electric vehicle (EV) at the Detroit Auto Show.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-readies-electric-rival-to-tesla-1420859986
Bolt is the name of the new GM vehicle. John Voelker of Green Car Reports believes he has a privileged perspective on the likely confusion arising from the similarity in the names Bolt & Volt:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096166_why-bolt-is-a-really-terrible-name-for-chevys-electric-car
In fact, there is little new here. GM’s 200-mile-range EV & its 2016 release, has been widely reported previously. All that has been shown is a concept. A production vehicle won’t be available until 2016, & may bear little similarity to the vehicle at the Detroit Auto Show. Take a look at Volt concept versions.
Despite the fact that there is little new in the GM announcement, it has led Seeking Alpha to predict the end of the line for Tesla in an article headed: “GM's 200-Mile Electric Car For $30,000: RIP Tesla”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2811785-gms-200-mile-electric-car-for-30000-rip-tesla
Update: What is new: Green Car Reports indicates that the price will actually be $37,500 & the launch date, "... during 2017, likely as a 2018 model." http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096238_chevrolet-bolt-concept-200-mile-30000-electric-car-concept-live-video-photos
What has been missed in the discussion so far, is that those unfamiliar with EVs have two major concerns:
1. range anxiety — range less than 100 miles won’t be enough for day-to-day use & will leave them stranded — in practice this goes away within a few weeks of ownership
2. cross country driving — relatively short range, combined with slow charge times1 mean cross country travel will be slower than buyers accustomed to a range of hundreds of miles & five minute refuelling want to accept
Obviously, the 200-mile-range of the Bolt answers question 1., but no apparent answer for question 2.
Where does all of the above leave Tesla?
● Tesla’s Model III EV with 200-mile-range is scheduled for release in a similar time frame, & at a similar price to the GM vehicle
● Tesla’s Supercharger network with its promise of practical, free, cross-country travel remains a strong drawcard
● Elon Musk has hinted that the Model III will have good performance —
Tesla dropped the 40 kWh Model S because it was "sluggish" & "didn't feel like a Tesla". He has also criticised the performance of other EVs & has said that he wants to release a Model III that, “doesn’t suck”.
● if Tesla never sells a single Model III, in the Model S, they have: a luxury sports sedan — the best car Consumer Reports has ever tested — with an extremely loyal following — a waiting list for every car produced — cheap to run — & continues to be developed
Tesla has thrown open its patents. Elon Musk has said that he is prepared to negotiate with other vehicle manufacturers for use of the Supercharger network. He has also made it clear that other manufacturers would have to cover costs.
Elon Musk — where would the failure of Tesla leave him? Certainly not poor. He has made a great deal of money, but he has consistently claimed that the money is secondary. What he set out the achieve with Tesla, was to create a sustainable system of personal transport. And he has already done that.
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1 Wayne Cunningham: “Slow, fast, & faster: Where to charge electric cars”, Cnet, http://www.cnet.com/news/slow-fast-and-faster-where-to-charge-electric-cars/
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