Will Apple build an electric vehicle? — update

Some facts, some rumours:

● forty-six current Apple employees were formerly at Tesla
● Apple is offering substantial bonuses & salary increases to current Tesla employees

● Apple is rumoured to be aggressively recruiting engineers who specialize in battery technology

● Steve Jobs had plans to design an iCar
● “Titan” is the name frequently connected with the rumoured project
● many have failed, but
● Tesla has shown that it can be done

● Apple has a history of entering a field in which it has no experience, disrupting & subsequently dominating it — iPod, iTunes, iPhone — often completely blindsiding competitors¹

● modern cars contain many computers — computers & user interfaces are at the very core of what Apple does

● “an incumbent automaker would spend $2-4 billion over seven to 10 years on a cleansheet design”²

● Apple has $178 billion in cash reserves³

Commentators have said that the cost of designing a car from scratch for an organisation with no experience in the industry would be prohibitive. Apple isn’t an automaker, but it has many employees with auto industry experience & seems bent on acquiring more. If it is assumed that Apple’s inexperience in the industry adds 50% to the cost of development,² $8 billion is not an insuperable barrier to an organisation with $178 billion in cash reserves.

Update 19 February: Apple accused of poaching electric-battery maker's engineers: http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-accused-of-poaching-electric-battery-makers-engineers/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-titan-car-project-to-challenge-tesla-1423868072

http://www.techradar.com/news/car-tech/apple-car-said-to-be-in-development-1284774

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/02/13/apple-has-several-hundred-workers-designing-new-electric-car-codenamed-titan---report

http://www.wired.com/2015/02/apple-making-car-isnt-ridiculous-think/

http://time.com/3710375/apple-car-titan-marc-newson/

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/munster-heres-why-i-think-news-of-an-apple-car-is-suddenly-pouring-out-2015-2

Alternative views:

Update 19 February: "Apple would be crazy to make cars," says former GM chief: http://www.cnet.com/news/former-gm-ceo-says-apple-would-be-crazy-to-make-cars/

Apple’s car will drive itself
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2015/02/apples-car-will-drive-itself-says-reuters/

The Apple Car is going to be great for Tesla!
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-apple-car-is-going-to-be-great-for-tesla-2015-2
____________________

¹ “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get. … But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, & I hope we’ll get him to own a Zune.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO 2007
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/heres-what-steve-ballmer-thought-about-the-iphone-five-years-ago-2012-6

² Davey Alba: “Apple Making a Car Isn’t as Ridiculous as You Think” http://www.wired.com/2015/02/apple-making-car-isnt-ridiculous-think/

³ Zack Whittaker: “Apple has $178 billion in cash …” http://www.zdnet.com/pictures/hey-big-spender-apple-has-178-billion-in-cash/

/ Apple to get into cars automobiles vehicles van electric vehicle EV devices Sam Jaffe analyst Navigant Research bigger picture major resources electric car device company The Wall Street Journal today Apple hundreds of employees on the project codenamed Titan led Steve Zadesky former Ford engineer helped develop iPod iPhone Apple’s long term intentions entering car manufacturing business big leap moved computers music phones Tesla first new American automaker profit since Chrysler industry history littered failures bones tried self driving self-driving autonomous cars Google uses modified rejiggered Toyota vehicles Prius hybrid small cars built by Roush industry supplier recent changes auto industry give Apple an edge companies rise of information technology telematics active safety driver and passenger interface Tesla’s success industry logical precedent Apple’s entry automakers becoming tech companies dozens of computers inside it core competencies automotive company Karl Brauer senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book Cupertino company traditional connections to the car industry swimming upstream building up resources endeavor forty-six current Apple employees formerly at Tesla raise past experience in the automotive industry rumored rumor rumour aggressively recruiting engineers battery technology develop development develops consumer devices automotive market clues Parsons The New School for Design Apple board member Mickey Drexler Steve Jobs design an iCar Marc Newson design designer concept car Ford Jonny Ive design of American cars money incumbent automaker proper infrastructure industry connections creating create brand new car division spend spending more money market cap of more than $700 billion rounding error massive cash hoard $5 billion major car manufacturers assemblers of other people’s parts new entrance advantage for Apple /