Former BP geologist: peak oil is here & it will "break economies"

Credit: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images/The Guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession / former British Petroleum BP geologist geology warn warning warned age of cheap oil long gone danger of continuous recession increased risk conflict hunger lecture Geohazards postgraduate Natural Hazards Insurers course University College London UCL Dr. Richard G. Miller worked for BP 1985 retire retired retiring 2008 fficial data from International Energy Agency IEA US Energy Information Administration EIA International Monetary Fund IMF conventional oil peaked around 2008 Dr. Miller critiqued critique official industry line global reserves current rates consumption pointing out that peaking result declining production rates declining reserves new discoveries increasing reliance unconventional oil gas 37 countries already post-peak post peak peaked global oil production declining about 4.1% per year 3.5 million barrels a day b/d per year new production equal new Saudi Arabia every 3 to 4 years maintain grow supply new discoveries not matched consumption since 1986 drawing down our reserves reserves are apparently climbing every year growing due better technology old fields raising amount can recover production still falling 4.1% p.a. per annum Dr. Miller who prepared annual in house in-house projections future oil supply BP 2000 to 2007 ATM problem more money limited daily withdrawals production conventional liquid oil flat since 2008 growth liquid supply since then has been largely of natural gas liquids NGL ethane propane butane pentane oil sand oil-sand bitumen prestigious journal Philosophical Transactions Royal Society future oil supply introductory paper co-authored Dr. Steve R. Sorrel co-director Sussex Energy Group University of Sussex Brighton oil industry experts growing consensus era of cheap oil has passed new very different phase endorse conservative conclusions extensive earlier study government funded government-funded UK Energy Research Centre UKERC sustained decline global conventional production appears probable before 2030 significant risk beginning before 2020 current evidence tight oil shale oil resource resources resource base appears relatively modest increasing dependence worse worsen decline rates in the long run reliance tight oil resources hydraulic fracturing exacerbate rising trend in global average decline rates well wells no plateau decline extremely fast tar sands sand Canadian oil sands deliver only 5 mb per day by 2030 IEA projection project all liquids liquid all-liquids production cude oil production grew NGL petroleum crude oil energy return on investment EROI barrel consumption consume global warming climate change green house greenhouse gas Richard Miller large scale large-scale wind farm projects reduction deed in tariff feed-in tariffs renewable energy Dr Nafeez Ahmed is executive director Institute for Policy Research & Development environment guides /